 |
| ELECTION 2016
When
it comes to hour-by-hour and, in some cases, minute-by-minute Election
Day horse race results, many political scientists say you're better off
avoiding it all. Close Twitter. Minimize your browser. Throw your phone
in a lake.
That's partly because while day-of projections, which are based on voter turnout numbers and historical voting patterns, are good at providing a glimpse into the right now, they often don't reflect bigger picture trends. For example, younger voters, who tend to procrastinate on getting to the polls, and blue collar voters, who are less likely to have the kind of job that you can leave for an hour in the middle of the day, won't always show up in voter turn-out tallies until after 5:30 pm.Day-of polls also aren't good at detecting aberrations in voting patterns. If significant numbers of people who have never voted before show up to the polls, as Donald Trump has promised, or certain demographic groups, such as Latinos, end up turning out in record-high numbers, turnout-based models won't show that.Read More: Here’s What You Should Watch on Election Day  Another reason to avoid day-of results, some political scientists argue, is that they may have the effect of depressing voter turnout in the evening hours. "It's not just the presidential race you have to think about," Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution, told TIME. "It's the down-ballot races in all the Western states."If Democrats in California can see that, say, Clinton is ahead in early results by a significant margin, Kamarck said, voters in that state may decide to avoid the hassle of going to the polls after work, which could help Republicans in both gubernatorial and statewide races, as well as local contests. Largely in deference to such fears, the biggest news outlets—ABC, [f500link]CBS[/f500link], NBC, CNN and Fox, as well as radio stations, newspapers, wire services, and websites—redoubled their pledge before Congress to avoid calling a contest until the polls close in that state.New, public-facing websites like VoteCastr.com promise to disrupt that tradition, which they see as unnecessarily precious in a 24-hour news cycle.Starting Election Day morning, VoteCastr, in partnership with Slate, will publish up-to-date poll results every three hours throughout the day. Sasha Issenberg, a journalist and partner with VoteCastr, described the traditional news outlets' "self-imposed gag order" as a disservice to the public interest and argued that that there's "scant evidence" that calling elections before polls close have affected turn out.VoteCastr, which is backed by a bipartisan team of election veterans, including Blaise Hazelwood, former political director of the Republican National Committee, and Ken Strasma, who headed up micro-targeting for Barack Obama in 2008, will collect data from thousands of precincts across 17 battleground states, borrowing a strategy long used by candidates, parties and SuperPACs.[time-gallery id="4559436"]  In an interview with TIME, Strasma was cautiously optimistic about the accuracy of the effort. "Any poll depends on the pollsters' assumptions of the make up of the electorate," he said. "So with VoteCastr, they're looking at past polling and surveys and then, on Election Day, saying, 'OK, based on who we're are actually seeing turn out, we can reasonably expect these people in this precinct to vote in this way." In 2012, the Obama campaign used virtually the same method to predict that in Hamilton County, Ohio, their candidate would win 56.4 percent of the early vote. In an article for Slate, Issenberg pointed out that their guess ended up being just two-tenths of a percent away from the final count.Tim Saler, vice president of the research firm Grassroots Targeting and former deputy campaign manager to Florida Gov. Rick Scott, was also encouraging, but reiterated that the real magic was in the modeling. In Colorado in 2012, the Romney campaign cited public polling showing their candidate doing well among independents, Saler said. But those polls missed the fact that people who were identifying as independent, because that's the way they thought of themselves, were actually registered Republicans. So on Election Day, Romney did much worse in Colorado than his campaign's projections showed, Saler told TIME. "You have to avoid falling into the trap of misrepresenting the baseline," he said.The take-home message, said Roger Tourangeau, the president of the Association for Public Opinion Research, is that while many of these models have become increasingly sophisticated over the past decade, with vastly more public polling and deep historical records on voter behavior, none of it is perfect. The only surefire way to know who won an election is to wait for AP vote tallies, which will come in after polls close or early the next morning, or to count every last vote, including absentee, overseas, and preliminary ballots—an impressive logistical endeavor that will be complete by the end of the week.If you want to avoid that roller-coaster feeling Election Day, wait until the polls close to get excited. |
Do or die. Don't waste your time .
Monday, November 7, 2016
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Sarmin Ether's Life Truth .: Sarmin Ether's Story ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,: Sarmin Ether ...
Sarmin Ether's Life Truth .: Sarmin Ether's Story ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,: Sarmin Ether ...: Sarmin Ether's Story ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,: Sarmin Ether Carrier - Memory. : carrier memory After completed the B.Sc Engineering degree ...
Monday, November 30, 2015
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Friday, November 20, 2015
Sunday, November 15, 2015
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Tuesday, November 3, 2015
Sunday, November 1, 2015
Sarmin Ether's Story ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,: Sarmin Ether's AA IT AND INISTITUTE
Sarmin Ether's Story ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,: Sarmin Ether's AA IT AND INISTITUTE: AA IT & INSTITUTE $$$$ Income In...
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Sunday, October 25, 2015
Sarmin Ether's AA IT AND INISTITUTE
AA IT & INSTITUTE
$$$$ Income In
HOME use Internet
Job’s are available in upwork,
enlace, fiverr, outsource, behance and
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House#
27 Road # 2, Block # E, Rampura Banasree,
Dhaka
# 1219. (2Nd Floor)
Cell:
01924096365 email:engineersarmin@gmail.com
Course
Start: 1st NOVEMBER
(Women are specially encourage to apply)
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Sl. No.
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COURSE NAME
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DURATION
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Fee (TK)
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01.
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BASIC
COMPUTER
COURSE
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One Month
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1000
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02.
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On page SEO
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One Month
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3000
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03 .
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Off page SEO
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One Month
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3000
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04.
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Outsourcing
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One
Month
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1000
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05.
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You Tube Video marketing
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One Month
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3000
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06.
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Website Monetization
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One Month
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3000
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Saturday, October 24, 2015
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
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Sarmin Ether's Story ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,: Sarmin Ether Carrier - Memory.
Sarmin Ether's Story ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,: Sarmin Ether Carrier - Memory.: carrier memory After completed the B.Sc Engineering degree I return Dhaka and start my struggle life . I am start my search job an...
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Sarmin Ether's Story ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,: Sarmin Ether Memory: playing and gossiping There was 23 rd June , When I was born I have nothing any memories but every one must be happy beca...
Wednesday, September 2, 2015
Sarmin Ether Future /Dreams
In the almighty of Allah I got three scholarship in this year with the
help of Face book. The online registration
process I applied RRF women scholarship program Narir hate sundor pitibi and unlikely
I got it and start new journey and study web design. This web design section we
learn HTML, CSS, Jqurrey , bootstrap and live project . This online examination process fast we
attained a written test then we submit a
project and lastly attained a viba . For the kind of God I gain the free scholarship
for this project. Last three month I am attained the training .
Then I again admit a new online selection process the ONLINE
CLASS. The kind of God I am select the
student of online class .This is SEO project. The online class student
is only twenty . We attained the class in every day 10PM to 12 PM. Last July month to till date I attained
the program .In The future this training will help me more .
On the behalf of Allah I got another scholarship BITM BASIS Scholarship
practical SEO . The selection procedure is hard .After completed the written and viba process I am selected the course SEIP Practical SEO .
I thanks In Bangladesh Finance ministry who
give us the stipend scholarship . Thanks all who help me to achieve this
goal .
After completed this training I become a skilled online worker .The work is my aim and
life.
I wish to visit Google headquarter and want to work in Google
team .
I wish to visit others country like USA , CANADA, PARIS and many more .
I wish to do something poor people and also doing something
women and child . Because women and child are the good asset in a country .
Sarmin Ether Carrier - Memory.
 |
| carrier memory |
After completed the B.Sc Engineering degree I return Dhaka and start my struggle life . I
am start my search job and also try to a
suitable job . We all of my friend start to search job for bdjobs and
prothomalo jobs . We dropped application
and exam like BCS, PDB, PGCB and DESCO. But most of the organization power
related are posted their job limited . The most of the post are fulfilled their master roll services when they submit a circular this only
shows and the job they permanent which they already attained master roll posted
. This time I am try more with my family support but for the god blessed I am
not get any good job like PGCB ,DESCO,PDB . So I also my family really feel
unhappy. Time passed away and I am start my job in a construction company and
their we posted trainee engineer .
The four junior engineer (Engr. Raisuddin Rajshai BIT who is now working in Grameen phone , Engr. Anwar
vai, Rajshai BIT who is now working in a
private organization and Engr . Morshed Ahasanulla
engineering university .At first they train up us power sector like High voltage
substation , Grid substation, 230/132KV to 33/11KV substation , Relay protection
system . Ex PDB Chief engr. Mahfuz sir,
PGCB GM , Engr. Amir korsu sir and Project director Mozammel Hossain ,
Commercial Director Anu Sir, Chinese Madam Chinchine . They train up hole of substation
and protection system . After completed the training we visit the substation and collected the data
and make offer and submitted tender and attained bid .
We work their Mirpur 230 KV substation and also worked Rampur
Muradpur 33/11 KV substation . And also worked sylet laferge surma cement factory , Isordi 230 KV bay extension work .
We survey and visits Asugong 230KV substation for bay extension
work .
We estimate CB, Transformer, Gantry structure, earthling
calculation and CT,PT , auxiliary transformer.
The work is work in our office but no vacation . But
sometimes we gossiping and enjoying more sometimes we feel tried but work is
our life.
The new director M.A Mannan sir teach us internal wiring
design and substation design. We start our design work and completed the more project Nitol
building design drawing work . Different
building design work and also bid Chittagong city corporation 9 storied
building design drawing completed work. Our company start a new project Korean plaza Mirpur
. We completed the design work in Korean plaza and also site visit this project
.
We also bid DESCO
33/11 KV GIS substation Gulsan-1 , Gulsan-2, Baridara and nikunzo
project.This time a new engineer appointed zahangir alom from Rajshahi BIT now
he is in Islami bank .We both together worked in this place and doing our
design work .My post is now Asst engineer and salary increment 3 times . But
the company is no new project . They are not paid salary regularly.
We faced many interview like Eriction, Grameen phone, banglalink
, city cell, Huaei etc. But unfortunately I have no get any job .So I am feel unhappy and sick. Because
money is the biggest inspiration of work .
 |
| factory |
After along gap I start my new straggle . Last two years I
start my new life . my dream is to become an immigrant Australia or Canada . But
due to reason of unemployed last few years I have no income and also no
experience so I am not applied any immigrant application .
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